The chatter about President Trump’s health is a distraction. Every cycle produces rumors of illness, decline, or imminent incapacitation,...

Jake Broe’s recent update is noteworthy not because he makes a daring analytical breakthrough, but because he avoids a glaring blunder....

The real counterfactual in the Kotkin/Vexler exchange is not whether President Trump could coerce Moscow; it is the logically prior—and...

Civilization stands or falls on its ability to tell reality from theater. The contest of our time is not simply fought with artillery or...

This chapter states the strategic consequences of a theory that treats President Trump, Vladimir Putin, and the wider autocratic axis as...

Analysts of President Trump, Vladimir Putin, the war in Ukraine, and the wider geopolitical field come from mixed backgrounds—history and...

There is a bright line between analysis and commentary. Analysts integrate data over time  with mechanistic reasoning  to generate...

We test whether President Trump’s choices toward Russia are random noise or the consistent output of a system aligned with Kremlin...

This chapter is not a denunciation. With the partial exception of the Lincoln Project’s deliberate provocation style, the figures...

Truth and lies do not compete on level ground. Modern propaganda industrializes deceit, exploiting structural asymmetries between...

The axis of thought is not an academic curiosity. It is a map of vulnerabilities. Each layer along the axis offers its own opening for...

Human beings cannot exist without frameworks of understanding. Every society, every individual, organizes the chaos of experience into...

The world does not lack for commentary. Every day, voices rise to interpret events, to frame narratives, to persuade. Yet beneath this...

In this article, we remind people that clarity is possible. Not only possible—it should be demanded of those who would speak with...

Eggers’ Nosferatu  (2024) is one of the world’s most pretentious piles of shit ever scored. I never saw his The Lighthouse , and after...

Western commentary on the war in Ukraine too often treats deterrence as a technical problem to be solved after the guns fall silent....

Vlad Vexler’s analysis of President Trump is incisive in its psychology but fatally limited in its refusal to contemplate the darker,...

Trump’s decision to halt Five-Eyes intelligence sharing in Ukraine is not an isolated bureaucratic adjustment but a strategic indicator....

Heather Cox Richardson has recently described America as standing between two deep storylines. On the one hand, she says, lies the long...

The Conventional Wisdom—And Its Failure By conventional political logic, Donald Trump should now be distancing himself from Vladimir...