7 Days On, With Germany Focused on Itself, Trump’s NATO Arms “Deal” Continues to Collapse
- john raymond
- Jul 21
- 4 min read
Let’s not pretend this was hard to see coming. I told you so.
From the moment Donald Trump unveiled his NATO arms “deal,” it was obvious to anyone paying attention that this wasn’t a serious defense initiative. It was theater—another empty stage set designed to make Trump appear decisive and generous, while in reality undermining Western unity, burden-shifting onto allies, and hollowing out U.S. leadership.
Now, just a week later, the cracks are already visible. Germany is investing in itself, not U.S. arms. France and Italy have balked outright. The so-called deal is collapsing—and it was designed to.
What Trump Proposed Was Never a Deal
Trump’s “plan” sounded clever on the surface: NATO allies would buy U.S. weapons and send them to Ukraine. The U.S. would replenish its stockpiles. In theory, everyone wins. In practice, it was a classic asymmetric maneuver—offloading costs onto Europe while branding the result “American generosity.” But here’s what I said from the start: this was not a strategic commitment. It was a PR stunt dressed up in policy drag. (And just more proof that Mark Rutte is a buffoon.)
There were no binding frameworks. No timelines. No commitments from Trump himself—just vague applause lines and MAGA spin. The entire point was to appear to be aiding Ukraine, while in reality delegitimizing multilateral defense and setting up the next betrayal.
And now the consequences are playing out exactly as I predicted.
Germany’s Strategic Autonomy Is Not an Accident
Germany, the economic engine of Europe and linchpin of NATO’s eastern defense, is going its own way. Just days after Trump’s announcement, Berlin unveiled a €630 billion investment package—an enormous capital injection aimed squarely at revitalizing its own infrastructure, green technology, and, critically, domestic arms manufacturing.
Yes, Germany has already contributed three Patriot systems to Ukraine. But now Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has said Germany will send no more Patriots, and no Taurus missiles either. The new investment plan includes zero funds earmarked for American weapons. Zero. That is not a coincidence. That is a rebuke.
Berlin is choosing to build its own defense capacity, not outsource it to the United States. If Trump’s arms proposal had been serious, if it had included real commitments or guarantees, that might have been different. But it wasn’t. It was sabotage—by any other name.
France and Italy Say the Quiet Part Out Loud
France and Italy were even clearer. Macron’s government has long championed “strategic autonomy,” and the idea that the EU should not rely on Washington—especially not on Trump’s Washington. Italy, constrained by internal politics and fiscal pressures, echoed the same concerns more quietly. But the message is unified: Europe sees the trap, and it’s refusing to walk into it.
Trump’s deal asked allies to foot the bill for U.S. arms shipments while offering no guarantees. It was a one-way transaction disguised as alliance building. Macron and Meloni called the bluff. And in doing so, they’ve exposed what many already knew: this wasn’t about Ukraine. It was about optics.
The Details Never Mattered—Because the Details Were Never There
European leaders were quick to ask for the fine print: What systems? How many? When would they be delivered? At what price? Who controls the logistics? And of course, what happens if Trump loses interest or changes his mind (as he’s done repeatedly)? They got no answers—just spin.
Even among Trump-aligned figures in NATO, the silence from Washington is becoming deafening. A Brussels planning session meant to hammer out implementation ended with little more than handshakes and vague communiqués. Meanwhile, countries like Germany and Poland continue funding their own defense build-ups—outside the American procurement channel.
This Is What Sabotage Looks Like
It’s important to name this clearly: Trump’s proposal was never meant to work. It was meant to look like support for Ukraine while shifting financial and political burden onto allies, knowing that many would hesitate. When they did hesitate, Trump and his media allies would paint them as weak, ungrateful, or anti-American. That’s the game.
It’s a tried-and-true tactic of asymmetric propaganda: create the appearance of partnership, then use your allies’ reasonable resistance to undermine the alliance itself.
And again, I told you this was coming.
Strategic Autonomy Is Now Survival
What Germany is doing—pivoting to internal investment, supporting Ukraine on its own terms, accelerating domestic arms production—is not betrayal. It is self-preservation. Germany is preparing for a world in which the United States is no longer a reliable partner. That future is no longer hypothetical. Trump’s antics have made it present-tense.
And this isn’t just a German story. It’s a European one. Across the continent, governments are preparing for a geopolitical order where American leadership is no longer assured. Trump’s fake NATO deal accelerated that shift, and now the fallout is visible in the budgets, the factories, and the statements of leaders across the EU.
A Final Word
So yes, seven days in, the Trump NATO arms “deal” is collapsing—exactly as it was designed to. Because it was never real. It was sabotage posing as statesmanship. It was betrayal dressed as leadership. And now that Europe is calling the bluff, we can finally see the truth with clarity:
This isn’t a story of Europe failing to meet Trump’s expectations. It’s a story of Europe refusing to play along with Trump’s lie.
And I told you so.
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