Chapter 4, VI. China’s Paradox: Ally and Parasite
- john raymond
- Jul 10
- 4 min read
The rise of China in the twenty-first century has often been misunderstood as either a juggernaut of strategic clarity or a rival of equal coherence to the United States.
In reality, China’s role in World War Three is far more complicated. It is not the architect of the war, nor a loyal lieutenant in the axis of authoritarian states. It is something else entirely: a parasite on both systems.
Bound to the autocratic entente by necessity and driven by its own dream of supremacy, China hedges in all directions—fighting its enemies and manipulating its allies alike. It is a sovereign giant, yet utterly insecure.
It is a central power, yet terminally distrustful.
Trump’s Tariff Trap and the May 9th Gambit
The breaking point came not through war, but through trade. When President Trump, in his second term, launched a fresh wave of tariffs against China, he did so with glee. For Trump, tariff warfare was not simply economic policy—it was performance. He wanted submission, public and ritualistic. And Xi Jinping, needing to avoid domestic unrest and economic collapse, had few moves available.
On May 9th, 2025, Xi joined Vladimir Putin in a staged summit that was more ceremony than substance. The optics were clear to all observers: Xi was not meeting a peer. He was kneeling before a master.
This was the May 9th Gambit—a symbolic gesture of loyalty to Putin in exchange for Russian backchannel influence to ease Trump’s tariffs. Whether Putin delivered the goods or not, Xi had already paid the cost in public humiliation. He had "kissed the ring." And that moment deepened China’s entanglement in the authoritarian entente—while hardening Xi’s resolve to try to never to be in that position again.
The Hacked Ally: China’s Shadow War on Russia
But submission did not mean trust. In the days following the May 9th appearance, Chinese cyber operations against Russian infrastructure spiked. Defense analysts quietly noted a rash of cyber intrusions into Russian logistics and aerospace systems, timed suspiciously close to Xi’s public embrace of Putin.
This is the truth of China’s position: it plays ally and saboteur simultaneously.
Xi understands that to serve as Putin’s junior partner is to invite exploitation. And so China continues to praise Russia in speeches, sign energy deals, and vote in support at the UN—while hacking Russian defense networks, bribing its clients, and tracking its generals.
This is not contradiction. It is strategy. In asymmetric warfare, duplicity is not a flaw—it is a feature.
The Pakistan Gambit: Hemming in India
The war’s next act played out in Kashmir. Following May 9th, as Trump’s tariffs remained in place and Xi's domestic credibility faltered, China moved to neutralize an emerging threat: India’s drift toward the West.
For years, India had relied on Russian military hardware. But Russia’s failings in Ukraine had revealed that hardware as unreliable, obsolete, and politically toxic. Narendra Modi, ever transactional, had already began recalibrating toward the U.S., the Quad, and broader Western integration.
This could not be allowed. And so China played one of its oldest cards for itself and for Russia: Pakistan.
Under Chinese pressure, Pakistan escalated tensions in Kashmir, drawing India’s military and diplomatic attention away from the West.
The result was immediate. India, once again feeling surrounded and isolated, leaned back into Moscow’s orbit—not out of faith, but out of necessity. It was a strategic trap laid with precision, and it worked.
Trump never clearly commented on this convergence. But from Moscow to Beijing to Islamabad, the signal was received: the West was distracted and disjointed. The authoritarian axis could act.
Xi’s Asymmetric Arsenal
China’s power is not in tanks or battalions, but in ambiguity and scale. It wages asymmetric warfare not just against the West, but against its own allies. It manipulates global supply chains, exploits corporate dependencies, surveils domestic dissenters, and embeds disinformation within global digital infrastructure.
Against the West, China’s toolkit includes:
Data warfare via platforms like TikTok and WeChat.
Cyber theft targeting intellectual property and strategic systems.
Debt-trap diplomacy via the Belt and Road Initiative.
Narrative manipulation through United Front proxies and global academic infiltration.
Against the entente, China keeps pressure on every node:
Russia is a target of espionage, energy negotiation traps, and regional power contests.
Iran is kept weak by underinvestment and strategic distance.
North Korea is propped up—but only enough to remain unstable and useful.
Pakistan is used, then punished, then used again.
Within this web, Xi pursues only one goal: regime security through dominance, deception, and delay.
A Reluctant Subordinate—But an Authoritarian Still
It must be said: Xi does not enjoy this role. He aspires not to be Putin’s second, but the globe’s first.
China dreams of replacing Western liberalism with a new Sinocentric order. But that dream cannot yet be realized. And so Xi compromises—lashing out where he must, bowing where he must, hacking and spying and trading and lying—all in the service of a delayed hegemony.
What binds him to the entente is not loyalty, but fear. The West, if awakened and aligned, represents an existential threat to his regime.
The other authoritarians—Putin, Trump, Khamenei, Netanyahu, Kim—are brutal, irrational, and often embarrassing. But they are useful.
They keep the West fractured. And that is enough for now.
Strategic Takeaway: Xi's Position Is Precarious but Potent
The May 9th Gambit did not just change China’s trajectory. It revealed it. Trump’s tariffs and economic bluster forced Xi into Putin’s arms—not as a friend, but as a desperate subordinate.
The gesture was one of humiliation, but also of strategic recalibration.
Xi may not trust his “allies.” He may undermine them in secret. But his goals remain aligned with theirs: weaken the West, delay its cohesion, and expand room for authoritarian survival.
In this war, China is not a bystander. It is a paradox—ally and parasite, subordinate and saboteur. And for the West, failing to understand this duality is to miss one of the most dangerous players on the field.
Comments