Dear Adam Kinzinger, You Are Getting Warmer...
- john raymond
- 1 day ago
- 3 min read
Adam, you have made some real progress, but you still orbit the wrong questions. Frozen assets and secondary sanctions are side chatter; the real fight is whether we slam the door on territorial carve-ups, refuse sham “peace talks” under bombardment, and directly strangle Russia’s war machine.
And here is the added piece you have not yet fully grasped: Europe must move from commentary to direct action—arms in bulk, financial autonomy, and even boots on the ground if required.
Words alone won’t shift the balance of power.
1. Carve-Ups Are Not Negotiable
You suggest it is “up to Ukraine” whether to concede land. Wrong. That framing pressures Kyiv to make concessions that international law already forbids. No bullshit freeze lines. No “de facto” recognition. No negotiations that ratify conquest. If the world permits borders to be moved by force in 2025, order collapses everywhere.
The position must be categorical: no territorial concessions.
2. No “Peace Deals” While Bombs Fall
Trump dropped his own ceasefire precondition and pivoted to a “deal.” That inversion was always the point of Alaska: create the illusion that Ukraine is the obstacle to peace. Talks under fire are coercion, not negotiation.
Sequence matters: ceasefire first, verifiable and enforceable; then talks with penalties for violations. Anything else is capitulation.
3. Frozen Assets and Secondary Sanctions Are Distractions
The $300B in frozen reserves is already denied to Putin. Seizing it tomorrow or next year changes nothing. The frozen money can already backstop arms for Ukraine today.
Likewise, talking about “secondary sanctions” concedes the false premise that nothing direct can be done. But Europe and the G7 have tools: seize tankers, ban shadow-fleet companies, deny port services, and freeze payments at the source.
Real strangulation of revenues requires direct enforcement, not diplomatic finger-wagging.
4. The Real Battlefield: Deep Strikes and Cash Flow
FPV drones have turned the front line into an attrition zone. Salients are theater; Russia pays thousands of lives for inches.
But the decisive front is Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign against refineries, depots, and air defenses. Each strike erodes cash flow and accelerates collapse. That, tied to direct enforcement of oil restrictions, is the war that matters.
5. Europe Must Act, Not Just Show Up
Here is where you are still too timid. Europe must not simply “stand with” Ukraine in words or presence—it must act as a combatant enabler. That means:
Weapons: accelerate deliveries of air defense, long-range strike, and counter-UAV systems without waiting on U.S. permission.
Finance: use its financial sovereignty for binding, predictable cash flows and weapons for Ukraine.
Boots on the ground: make plain that if Russia escalates or Ukraine is cornered, European troops will be deployed—not as occupiers, but as defense forces inside Ukraine itself if needed.
Putin’s calculus shifts only if he believes Europe will not let Ukraine fall—whether or not Washington hesitates.
Good Work on Growth, But You Have More to Do
You are getting warmer, Adam. You see Trump’s inconsistency, Europe’s importance, the attritional stalemate, and the promise of drone warfare.
But you still need to say the hard truths: no territorial carve-ups ever, no “peace” under bombardment, no more excuses dressed as sanctions.
And above all, Europe must move from commentary to direct action, up to and including boots on the ground.
Only then does the balance tilt decisively, and only then can this war be ended on terms that protect order rather than destroy it.
Comments