Dear Jake Broe, You Continue to Misread Trump vs. Ukraine
- john raymond
- Jul 17
- 3 min read
I need to level with you, Jake. Your read on Trump’s 50-day ultimatum, the drone deal, the Russian elite's unease, and the nuclear saber-rattling is likely to be 100% wrong...
You’re still analyzing these events like they operate in a rational, rules-based world—where policy follows intention, deterrence follows logic, and Trump’s public threats are serious unless proven otherwise.
But that’s not the world we’re in. That’s not asymmetric war. And that’s not Trump.
Let’s walk through what you're missing:
1. You Misunderstand the Purpose of the 50-Day Ultimatum
This is not a genuine pressure campaign. It is a stage-managed bluff designed to look serious—just long enough to:
Win a few headlines,
Shift polling, (Remember that MAGA follows Trump, not logic or principal.)
And buy Trump time.
You say Trump “wants peace” and that Rutte’s explanation of the 50-day logic is compelling. But here’s the wager I’m laying down: this 50-day window will lapse just like every other Trump bluff. There will be no follow-through. No real sanctions. No tariffs that bite. Just a new excuse.
And if you think that’s cynical, remember this:
2. I Have Called It Before
I predicted for you that the Blumenthal-Graham sanctions bill was a nothingburger. That it was never going to see the light of day. That it was designed to look like a serious bipartisan response—only to be buried the moment Trump got spooked, distracted, "had a better idea," or whatever you want to call it.
I was right.
And now I’m telling you again: the 50-day threat is the next illusion. You are watching Act II of the same play.
3. You’re Treating Trump’s Transactional Deal-Making Like Policy
You described Trump’s drone-for-weapons exchange with Zelenskyy as something “positive.” You even praised him for “trying to help a little bit.” But that’s not supported by pattern or evidence. Trump doesn’t make good-faith deals. He makes optics. He builds props. And when the optics change, he sabotages his own deals to blame others and rewrite the narrative.
It’s just as likely—if not more so—that Trump will later cite “Ukrainian corruption” or “Zelenskyy lied” or “deep state sabotage” as an excuse to walk away from the very deal he’s now claiming credit for.
So don’t confuse momentary alignment theater with structural support. Trump is not on Ukraine’s side. He’s on Putin’s.
4. You Don’t See How Trump Will Use the Nuclear Threat as Cover
You rightly point out that Russia won’t use nukes. But then you dismiss their saber-rattling as ineffective or wasted effort. What you don’t see is that Trump will almost certainly use that very saber-rattling as an excuse to back out of the 50-day bluff.
He doesn’t care about MAD. His audience doesn’t understand MAD. All they need to hear is:
“I stopped WW3.” That’s the justification. That’s the “out.”
You’re analyzing military deterrence. But Trump is playing propaganda theater. And he will all but certainly use the Russian threat as a narrative tool to protect himself from having to act.
5. Belton Is Wrong, Too: Russian Elites Aren’t Upset About the War. They’re Afraid of Putin.
You cited Catherine Belton’s reporting that the Russian elite is growing uneasy over missed diplomatic chances. But she’s misreading the power dynamic. The elite aren’t upset that the war continues—they’re terrified of being cannibalized to feed it.
Putin won’t stop the war to protect the oligarch class. He’ll burn them to keep it going. This isn’t dissent. It’s dread.
So Here’s the Bet—Again
Jake, I’m betting you once more. Just like I did with the Blumenthal/Graham sanctions bill. And I want you to remember how that ended...
If this 50-day deadline passes without real, enforceable sanctions or tariffs—without meaningful consequences for Russia or its oil buyers—then you’ll admit: Trump was never serious, Rutte misread the situation, And you were once again too eager to believe a known conman was “trying to help a little.”
If you, however, are right, I will write up a nice, long mea culpa...
But if, instead, Trump cites a failed drone deal or nuclear fears as an excuse to walk away, or simply moves on to the next shiny object, you’ll stop calling these moments “wins.”
Because they’re not wins. They’re mirages. And I’m asking you to stop chasing them.
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