Dear NATO Nations, If You Are Not Listening to Paul Warburg, You Are Fucking Up
- john raymond
- Aug 8
- 2 min read
Paul Warburg just handed NATO—and the democratic world—a clear-eyed blueprint for understanding Russia’s latest moves, and if European capitals don’t internalize it immediately, they will have no excuse when the strategic bill comes due.
His analysis cuts through the noise: Russia’s recent troop movements along NATO’s borders are not a prelude to imminent invasion; they are a masterclass in perception warfare. By deploying just a couple thousand soldiers and building the shells of new military bases, the Kremlin has tricked parts of Europe into acting as though a force of hundreds of thousands is already massing at the gates. The result? Vast sums diverted into countering an army that doesn’t exist yet, while the real army—the one already burning through Ukraine—is left facing insufficient resistance.
This is the essence of asymmetric warfare: achieving strategic goals not through direct confrontation, but by manipulating your opponent’s fear into self-defeating behavior. Every day Europe holds back artillery, armor, and ammunition “just in case” of a future assault is a day that Russia’s existing assault in Ukraine goes under-supplied.
Warburg is blunt in his prescription: offense is defense. Every Russian soldier and piece of kit destroyed in Ukraine today is one less that can be turned on NATO tomorrow. The smartest hedge is not stockpiling for a hypothetical future, but accelerating Russia’s depletion in the present. That means proportional rebalancing—yes, keep enough to deter a surprise—but shift the bulk toward Kyiv, where the attrition is real and the gains are measurable.
Warburg’s analysis is refreshing because it has, perhaps without him naming it, moved squarely into Pillar Two—the asymmetric warfare lens that focuses on understanding the adversary’s manipulation of perceptions, lies, and narratives rather than taking their stated aims at face value.
He has correctly identified the gap between the headline and the underlying fact as a battlespace in itself. But while his framing is dead-on, he has not yet fully internalized the depth of Trump’s sabotage role within the alliance. The reality is that NATO’s American pillar is no longer structurally sound—Washington is already compromised by Putin’s influence. Trump’s presence in the Oval Office means the U.S. is not just unreliable; it is an active risk factor.
NATO nations must therefore act without Washington. The United States government, under Trump, cannot be counted on to provide either the will or the consistency required to sustain Ukraine or defend Europe. For as long as Trump holds power, America is not a reliable pillar of NATO strategy—it is a strategic vulnerability.
Europe must cut Washington out of its war calculus, build its own supply chains, pool its industrial base, and coordinate deployments independently of U.S. political whims. The Kremlin’s psychological warfare depends on Western paralysis; breaking that paralysis means severing the dependency on a captured ally.
The demon is in front of us in Ukraine, not lurking just over the horizon, and Europe has both the means and the obligation to fight it without waiting for permission from a compromised Washington.
So in short, NATO, Warburg is right—and if you’re not listening to him, you are fucking up.
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