Deterrence Is Not Something You Retrofit—It Is Forged in the Fires of Conflict Itself
- john raymond
- Aug 23
- 3 min read
Western commentary on the war in Ukraine too often treats deterrence as a technical problem to be solved after the guns fall silent. Analysts speak of Article 5 clauses, security guarantees, and peacekeeping mechanisms as if these can be bolted onto the post-war order like after-market parts.
This is a profound error. Deterrence is not something you retrofit. It is forged in the fires of conflict itself.
The Primitive Truth: Ukraine Cannot Lose
Everything begins here: Ukraine. Cannot. Lose.
This is not just good strategy; it is the primitive baseline for Western survival.
If Ukraine is destroyed, deterrence across Europe collapses. Russia will have proven aggression works, NATO’s credibility will be hollowed out, and the post-1945 security order will die.
To even discuss deterrence without first acknowledging this reality is to evade the central fact of this war...
Ukraine’s survival is synonymous with Europe’s survival.
There is no Europe capable of resisting Moscow if Kyiv falls. Every Western state that is not a traitor to the alliance should therefore organize around this fundamental imperative: Ukraine must win, because only a Ukrainian victory creates the conditions for deterrence to exist at all.
Integration, Not Pity
Ukraine is not a supplicant waiting politely outside NATO’s doors. It is the most credible fighting force on the planet, the one nation that has fought the Russian army and navy to a standstill.
Its operational security practices are unmatched—where Western governments hemorrhage leaks, Ukraine maintains the discipline of silence.
And Ukraine alone has absorbed 21st-century battlefield lessons in drones, cyber, deception, and distributed command that no NATO military has yet mastered.
If NATO continues to flail, bleeding credibility and secrets, it will die by self-inflicted wounds. The immediate priority must be integration: Ukrainian military practice, Ukrainian OpSec, Ukrainian resilience must be made the standard of the Western alliance.
NATO nations should be learning from Ukraine, not lecturing it about entry prerequisites.
Beyond NATO: Toward a Western Supernation
World wars are systemic resets. After the First, the League of Nations emerged; after the Second, NATO and the United Nations.
Now to assume NATO will automatically survive this third world war is beyond naïve.
Institutions die when their linchpin states betray them. With the United States under the control of a Kremlin-aligned president, NATO’s future is in grave doubt.
But what is certain is this: if Ukraine survives, it will be the cornerstone of whatever comes next.
The best case is not NATO 1949 redux but the creation of a political-military super-structure in which security, politics, and economy are fused. No more NATO for defense, EU for economics, UN for politics—such separations breed paralysis.
The new order must be one body, a Western supernation, integrating all functions of deterrence and governance.
And at its heart will be Kyiv. Just as the United Nations was headquartered in New York after America became the arsenal of democracy, the new order will likely be headquartered in Kyiv.
Why? Because Ukraine has proven itself the shield of democracy, the hidden capital of the West. It is there, not in Brussels or Washington, that the next age of deterrence will likely be anchored.
Forged in Fire
Deterrence is not words on paper. It is not Article 5 alone, nor is it some technocratic menu of peacekeeping schemes. Deterrence is forged by blood, sacrifice, and survival.
As such, the only credible deterrent to Russian aggression in the next order will be a victorious Ukraine integrated at the core of the West. Anything less is an illusion.
Therefore, if one desires deterrence, Ukraine cannot lose. That is the beginning and the end of serious thought about this war.
All else flows from it.
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