Paul Warburg Understands Regime Security, But Not the Full Threat to Putin Abandoning the War in Ukraine: The Vengeance Trap
- john raymond
- Jul 10
- 4 min read
Paul Warburg offers a cogent diagnosis of Vladimir Putin’s war psychology: a dictator trapped by his own refusal to accept failure, locked in a gambler’s loop of doubling down on a failing bet.
Warburg understands that Putin, like many autocrats before him, is incapable of admitting defeat and that this pathological rigidity poses immense danger to his people, his enemies, and the wider world.
But while Warburg gets the broad shape of the regime security problem right, he does not understand its final dimension. He does not see the depth of the trap.
Warburg sees a dictator afraid of revolt. What he misses is that Putin is afraid of vengeance—not just from his own people, but from Ukrainians who he fears will never be broken to his will.
Not from the collapse of his myth or the fall of his government, but from the very personal, very real possibility that his enemies will come for him.
That’s not abstract fear. That’s not historical shame. That’s mortal terror.
This Is Not About Russia. It’s About One Man’s Life.
There is a temptation in Western analysis to believe that tyrants see themselves as custodians of nations or legacies. But Putin is long past such delusions. This is not about saving Russia. It is not about protecting his oligarchs, preserving the state, or even restoring the empire.
This war continues because Putin wants to stay alive. It’s that simple. And that horrifying.
He has watched what happens to fallen strongmen: Mussolini, dragged through the streets. Gaddafi, brutalized by the mob. Saddam, found in a hole and left to hang.
He knows these stories intimately. And unlike some Western analysts, he understands the principle behind them: a dictator who loses to an unbroken enemy is not merely defeated—he is hunted.
Martial law in Russia buys him time. It suppresses dissent, frightens the streets into silence, and forces conscripts to the front lines.
But without total victory in Ukraine his martial law cannot reach beyond Russia’s borders. It cannot kill the future. And so long as Ukraine survives—not wins, just survives—Putin knows that somewhere, someone will spend their time planning his end.
And those people will not be bound by diplomacy. They will not need permission. And they will not stop until he is dead.
The Vengeance Trap
What makes this war unwinnable for Putin is not military. It is psychological and existential.
Ukraine does not need to conquer Russia. It does not need to roll tanks through Moscow. It only needs to endure. Because endurance guarantees that Putin will never be free from the fear of retribution.
His losing creates a nation of survivors. Of widows and orphans. Of ruined families and leveled cities. Of soldiers who have seen everything—and who are still alive.
And Putin knows they will not forget. And they are supremely angry with him.
That is the vengeance trap: once you create enough victims, you cannot end the war—you can only win it totally, prolong it, or hope they don’t outlive you.
Paul Warburg talks about the fear of returning Russian soldiers. But that’s not the primary threat Putin sees. Putin doesn’t just worry about mutiny. He worries about revenge. And not in the broad political sense, but in the intimate, physical, mortal sense.
He worries about a Ukrainian with a rifle, a drone, a bomb, or a plan. Someone who doesn’t need orders. Someone who doesn’t stop just because the war has officially ended.
And if Ukraine is still free—still standing—those people will exist. And he knows it.
Why Putin Can’t Stop
This is why Putin cannot end the war, even if he knows he is losing. Not because he's trying to salvage the Russian economy. Not because he fears Western sanctions or domestic unrest.
He cannot stop because stopping would mean exposure—to justice, yes, but more than that, to pain. To capture. To death.
If the war ends and Ukraine survives, the threat becomes personal. His life becomes a countdown.
So he prolongs the war. Not to win, but to delay. Not to gain territory, but to keep breathing.
Putin is not protecting his legacy. He doesn’t care about history books. He is trying to stay alive for one more day.
Just like the tyrants before him in their final chapters, he would rather destroy his own country than surrender to the mercy of those he failed to kill.
This is why the war can only end one way: with him gone.
What Warburg Misses—and Why It Matters
Warburg’s analysis of regime security is elegant. But he still assumes Putin is playing some kind of game with rules. That he's weighing options. That he's trying to preserve power for its own sake.
But Putin is not strategic in that way anymore. He is not making choices between bad options. He is surviving. Day by day. Bomb by bomb.
And so his war logic isn’t rational—it’s feral. It’s not about what he can gain. It’s about what he must destroy to keep living.
Ukraine, if left standing, is a mirror showing him what he is and what will become of him. It will produce the people who will come for him. It already has.
Warburg thinks Putin is avoiding defeat. In truth, he’s running from the people who will someday make him pay for what he’s done.
And they are still alive. And they are free. And he knows it. And they so very badly want him dead.
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