top of page

Stop the Nonsense: The Sad Math Behind Trump and Ukraine

Writer's picture: john raymondjohn raymond
THERE WILL BE MATH!
THERE WILL BE MATH!

Let’s cut through the noise. For all the talking heads, clowns, bots, and apologists endlessly speculating about what Donald Trump might do for Ukraine, here’s a challenge: show me one single instance where Trump has done anything good—reasonably or even debatably helpful—for Ukraine. Just one. Until then, save the hypothetical fantasies for someone who’s buying what you’re selling because the rest of us aren’t.


Lucy, the Football, and the Never-Ending Delusion

This whole spectacle is like Lucy holding the football and Charlie Brown endlessly falling for it. Over and over again, Trump’s defenders and sycophants wax poetic about his future potential to help Ukraine, despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary. The problem isn’t just the dishonesty—it’s the complete disregard for reality, logic, and even basic math.


Trump’s Actual Track Record: More Harm Than Help

Let’s be clear: Trump was impeached the first time because of his harmful actions toward Ukraine. His attempt to extort political favors from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by withholding military aid wasn’t just unethical—it directly undermined Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. That’s not speculation; that’s fact.


When it comes to Ukraine, Trump’s track record isn’t a mystery:


  • Withholding Aid: The very aid package that was critical to Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression was used as leverage for Trump’s personal political gain.


  • Cozying Up to Putin: Trump’s public fawning over Vladimir Putin only emboldened Russia, creating the conditions for further aggression.


  • Sowing Division in NATO: Trump’s disdain for NATO and his undermining of allied unity weakened the West’s collective stance against Russian expansionism.


So, when anyone starts spinning tales about what Trump might do for Ukraine, remember: the math of the past matters, and in this case, it points to more harm than good.


The Misuse of Lorenz’s Rule of Succession

Here’s where the talking heads really embarrass themselves. They misinterpret basic principles of probability, like Lorenz’s Law of Succession, to justify their nonsense. This principle suggests that if something has never happened, we can add a theoretical sample to calculate its likelihood of occurring in the future. But here’s the kicker: this law doesn’t magically make an improbable event suddenly likely.


Applying this to Trump and Ukraine, let’s break it down:


  • If Trump has never done anything good for Ukraine (which he hasn’t), the likelihood of him doing so in the future remains vanishingly small.


  • The law doesn’t account for historical evidence suggesting the opposite—Trump’s actions have consistently harmed Ukraine, which makes the probability of future harm far higher.


When the talking heads on TV or YouTube spout probabilities like “1 in 4” or some nonsense based on a misreading of the math, they deny reality and ignore the very foundation of statistical reasoning. Worse, they do so on a topic where the stakes couldn’t be higher: life and death for millions, and the potential spillover of war into the rest of the world.


Historical Evidence vs. Fantasies


Let’s revisit history for a moment:


  • The Impeachment: Trump actively tried to harm Ukraine by withholding aid. That’s not speculation; it’s documented fact.


  • The War in Ukraine: Trump’s bromance with Putin set the stage for the Russian aggression we see today. His repeated attacks on NATO undermined the very alliance that has stood by Ukraine.


  • Authoritarian Leanings: Trump’s admiration for autocrats like Putin is well-documented, making it highly unlikely he would ever act in Ukraine’s best interest.


So, when someone talks about the hypothetical one-out-of-four “good” Trump might do for Ukraine, ask yourself: where’s the evidence? History suggests the opposite, and probabilities based on reality—not fantasy—make it clear that more harm than good is likely.


The Stakes Are Too High for This Nonsense

This isn’t a game. The war in Ukraine is about life, death, and the survival of democracy in the face of authoritarian aggression. The talking heads and apologists who ignore reality to peddle fantasies about Trump’s potential goodness are playing a dangerous game. Their ignorance of math, statistics, and history isn’t just embarrassing—it’s irresponsible.

So, here’s the challenge again: show me one time Trump has done anything good for Ukraine. Until then, stop with the hypotheticals, stop misusing math, and stop denying reality. The stakes are too high for this kind of nonsense.


 
5 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page