The Likely Way Trump and Putin Will Make the 50-Day Sanctions Disappear
- john raymond
- Jul 28
- 3 min read
Donald Trump recently issued a 50-day ultimatum regarding the war in Ukraine. It was bold, performative, and completely empty—a move so characteristic of his track record that any honest analyst should view it through the lens of the Raymond Method.
Step one: when a proven enemy makes a move, assume it is designed to help themselves or their proven ally. In this case, Trump’s deadline was not a mechanism for pressure against Putin—it was a narrative setup, a countdown to a staged retreat.
And so the question becomes: how will Trump make the 50-day sanctions disappear?
We may already know the answer, because we’ve seen the pattern before. Trump’s behavior is governed by a loop: make a threat, wait for a spectacle, then declare victory in the absence of any real action.
The twist this time is that Trump likely has a direct partner in the illusion—Vladimir Putin.
The Bluff Is the Move
Let’s be clear: there is no reason to believe Trump intends to follow through on his threat.
We must assume that his promise of secondary sanctions and tariffs was made to shape headlines, not policy. It was a performance aimed at looking tough without actually doing anything useful for Ukraine. But a performance like this requires an exit—something that can be spun as “success” even when no real action takes place.
Enter Putin.
As the deadline approaches, we should expect Russia to escalate rhetorically. Not militarily—rhetorically. We will likely see bold statements about nuclear doctrine, new "red lines," the sacred defense of Kaliningrad, or hypothetical war scenarios involving the Baltics or NATO.
These are not strategic escalations; they are narrative escalations. They exist to provide Trump with a pretext: a way to say, “We were on the brink, but I stopped it.”
Putin plays the madman. Trump plays the negotiator. Ukraine gets nothing. The sanctions vanish. And the base and the ignorant sees it all as proof that only Trump can “keep the peace.”
The Media Will Help—Willingly or Not
This gambit depends on the press falling for the show. When Russian saber-rattling reaches a peak, expect U.S. media to sound the alarms: "Are we on the edge of WWIII?" “Will Trump’s deadline lead to escalation?” That kind of breathless coverage creates the space for Trump to step in and declare: “No, I stopped it. I got us a deal.”
The “deal,” of course, will do nothing. Ukraine will not be liberated. No territory will be returned. No Russian war machine will be constrained. But Trump will sell it as diplomacy, and the press and commentators alike—so often focused on optics over outcomes—will run with it.
Gabbard's Role: Narrative Insulation
At the same time, Trump’s allies—particularly DNI Tulsi Gabbard—are working to erase the very foundation of Russia’s interference narrative. By constantly rebranding Russian subversion as a “hoax,” they insulate Trump from the accusation that he is once again capitulating to Putin.
If there was never any collusion, never any Russian influence, then what is there to capitulate to?
Gabbard’s purpose is not to persuade, but to disarm the public’s ability to recognize a pattern. When the 50-day deadline passes and Trump does nothing, anyone calling that surrender will be dismissed as reviving discredited lies. This is asymmetric warfare at the narrative level.
What Should Happen—and What Won’t
If the Trump were genuine, we would see:
Immediate secondary sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies aiding Russia’s war effort.
A crackdown on crypto and shadow banking systems.
Coordinated NATO financial warfare against the Russian industrial base.
A new round of meaningful military aid to Ukraine.
Yet, it is now all but certain none of that will happen. Instead, the deadline will arrive. A “deal” will be announced. It will be vague, hollow, and toothless—something about future peace frameworks or deconfliction mechanisms. And just like that, the promised sanctions will evaporate.
The Real Danger
This isn’t just about Ukraine. It’s about the erosion of reality itself. When Trump and Putin perform synchronized theater, and the press reports it as diplomacy, they are not just betraying Ukraine—they are destroying the very framework that allows free societies to recognize betrayal.
Under the Raymond Method, we analyze not the surface but the structure: what harm does this enable? The harm here is existential. It teaches that threats don’t need follow-through, that enemies can become “partners” by playing crazy, and that betrayal can wear the mask of restraint.
So we must name it clearly: the 50-day ultimatum is all but certainly a fraud. A coming “deal” will be cover for surrender. And unless we break the cycle, Putin will walk away stronger—again—while Trump and his allies convince millions that they averted a silly fight that the Russians weren't going to pick in the first place.
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