Trump’s “Phase Two” Is a Lie
- john raymond
- 2 hours ago
- 2 min read
The Core Points
These are the three core points which you need to know in order to understand Trump’s latest pro-Russian gambit:
Trump’s “phase two” sanctions pitch is built on lies.
The India tariffs did not hurt Russia; they only hit American buyers.
Trump and Bessent are trying to push Europe into a no-win choice: either raise their own energy prices by copying Trump’s bad policy, or be branded “weak” when they refuse.
Phase two isn’t about strangling Russia’s war machine. It’s about setting up Europe for blame so that the the Trump administration can justify stepping back from Ukraine.
Why the India Tariffs Are So Telling
Trump lied, saying the India tariffs drained “hundreds of billions” from Russia. But the tariffs are on goods India sells to America, not oil India buys from Russia.
India has already said it will keep buying Russian crude because it’s cheap. Russia still gets its money. The only people paying Trump’s tariff are Americans.
A lying Bessent tried to deny this reality, claiming tariffs aren’t a tax on Americans. Yet he also admitted that if the Supreme Court strikes them down, billions might have to be refunded. Refunds to whom? To Americans who paid.
This double-talk is proof that his words cannot be trusted. When someone blatantly lies about the obvious basics, you can know that their bigger claims are not believable either.
The Hobbesian Trap for Europe
Bessent’s “secondary tariffs” proposal puts Europe in a trap:
Go along – Implementing self-sabotaging tariffs and cutting off fuel refined in India, will squeeze their own markets, and drive up prices.
Refuse – Be branded “intransigent,” the very excuse Trump wants to use to shift blame onto Europe.
Either outcome helps Russia. If Europe complies, it weakens itself. If Europe refuses, Trump gets a cover story for abandoning Ukraine.
What to Watch Going Forward
The Lie Repeated. Trump and Bessent will keep repeating the lie that the India tariffs crushed Russia. Each repetition sets the stage for demanding Europe do the same. Watch how often the claim appears in White House statements or sympathetic media.
Pressure on Europe. The key move will be Trump pushing for Europe to copy “secondary tariffs.” If Europe balks, expect Trump to frame that refusal as Europe being disloyal or weak.
Shift in Blame. The real turning point will come when the administration starts saying Ukraine aid can’t continue because “Europe isn’t doing its part.” That is the betrayal the whole setup is designed to justify.
The Cover Story. Look for phrases like “Europe’s intransigence” in official remarks. Once those phrases appears, it will mark the pivot point: U.S. betrayal framed as Europe’s fault.
The Bottom Line
Phase two is not a sanctions plan. It is a blame plan. It uses fake numbers, false economics, and bad-faith traps to push Europe into a no-win corner.
When Europe refuses to follow, Trump will claim betrayal isn’t coming from Washington, but from Brussels. That is the script. We know it now.
And we should be watching for and pushing back against every beat as it unfolds.