Ukrainians Believe in Ukrainian OpSec, I Believe in Ukrainian OpSec, But Most Importantly Putin Believes in Ukrainian OpSec
- john raymond
- Jul 28
- 3 min read
In the past week or so, many observers have struggled to explain the Zelenskyy administration’s rapid rollback of NABU and SAPO independence, followed just as swiftly by a proposed bill to restore it. Critics saw the move as a blunder, a power grab, or an act of political weakness caved in by foreign and domestic pressure.
But when viewed through the lens of operational security—OpSec—the pieces begin to align. Not as confusion, but as design.
Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, Ukraine has consistently proven itself a disciplined, clear-eyed actor. No catastrophic miscalculations. No chaotic zig-zags. No arbitrary authoritarianism. The leadership has made hard decisions and followed them with coordinated action.
This is not the behavior of a government making random mistakes, nor one devolving into dictatorship. Rather, it is the behavior of a state at war—one that understands its survival depends not only on weapons and alliances, but on the integrity of its information networks and the trustworthiness of its internal institutions. And that’s where OpSec comes in.
To understand why NABU and SAPO were suddenly subordinated, one must consider the timing and context. Just before the law was passed, Ukraine’s own security services raided the anti-corruption agencies, investigated staff, and checked digital systems for leaks. This wasn’t sabotage. It was containment.
If you believe, as Ukraine surely does, that Russian intelligence is desperate to compromise, infiltrate, or disable these institutions, then purging them before restoring their power is not tyranny—it’s prudence. It is the state defending its nervous system before letting it act freely again. And if the goal was to kill independence, there would be no reversal bill at all. Instead, a law returning full autonomy to these agencies is scheduled for a vote within days.
Still, some might say the reversal is a reaction to pressure from Ukraine’s Western partners. Maybe. But there has been no official statement from the U.S., the EU, or G7 governments claiming credit. What we have seen, instead, is public criticism followed by a Ukrainian solution—drafted with NABU and SAPO themselves. That doesn’t look like coercion. It looks like a controlled sequence: isolate, secure, restore.
What supports this interpretation most convincingly is what Putin has done in the days surrounding this political storm. He canceled his vaunted navy day for fear of Ukrainian actions against him...
Do you remember Operation Spiderweb—a deep-penetration drone strike that destroyed $6 billion in Russian strategic bombers? It would not be possible without perfect operational security. Neither would a string of attacks on Russian railways, energy depots, and military airfields.
In that light, we have to accept that Putin’s navy day parade in St. Petersburg was canceled for fear of a Ukrainian drone strike against the dictator himself.
This is not Ukraine flailing in confusion. It is Ukraine credibly executing complex operations that demand absolute secrecy, rigorous internal discipline, and airtight coordination. And that level of execution is impossible without trusted institutions at home.
So yes—Ukrainians believe in Ukrainian OpSec. They must. Their lives and cities depend on it. I believe in it too, because it’s the only explanation that fits the facts.
But most tellingly of all, Vladimir Putin believes in Ukrainian OpSec. That is why he didn’t show up at his own parade. That’s why he’s running—not from tanks or troops—but from the invisible hand of Ukrainian intelligence.
There are always multiple ways to explain a government’s action. But when two of those explanations—chaotic blundering or authoritarian seizure—are inconsistent with every pattern we’ve seen from Ukraine since 2022, we must discard them.
What remains is the explanation that fits the facts, matches the capabilities, and mirrors the behavior of a nation that continues to punch far above its weight on the global stage. That explanation is OpSec.
And right now, it may be the single most important force driving Ukraine’s war effort forward.
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