Vexler’s Blind Spot—Trump’s “Incompetence” Is the Plan (Pillar Three)
- john raymond
- Sep 4
- 3 min read
The decisive error in Vlad Vexler’s frame is that he attributes President Trump’s repeated pro-authoritarian outcomes to incompetence, personalistic “infantile threats,” or a bungled attempt at playing global power broker.
Vexler sees correctly that Ukraine suffers and that China sometimes gains, but he misses the deeper structural pattern: Trump’s actions always help Putin, always harm Ukraine, and always weaken the West.
That constancy cannot be explained away as accident—it must be recognized as design. This is the essence of Pillar Three: the Traitor-General frame.
Outcomes Over Stated Motives
When evaluating Trump, intent is often camouflaged, deniable, or buried beneath layers of spectacle. The proper analytic standard is outcomes. If a move predictably advances Kremlin regime security, and if the same pattern recurs across multiple domains—diplomacy, sanctions, alliances, energy, narratives—then the inference of intent becomes unavoidable.
One or two events could plausibly be chalked up to incompetence.
Five or ten repetitions form a lawlike pattern.
Trump’s presidency is littered with such repetitions: NATO disruption, Ukraine aid delay, sanctions sabotage, “peace” theatrics with Putin, rhetorical attacks on European unity, pressure on India and China that deepen their Kremlin ties.
The cumulative record leaves no space for coincidence. The probability that so many actions consistently aid Moscow by accident is vanishingly small.
Vexler’s Misplacement of Agency
Vexler identifies Trump’s “infantile” method—threats without strategy—but interprets it as an incapacity to conceive of geopolitics. In doing so, he overlooks that these very “failures” function as successes for Putin.
Every time Trump undermines Western trust, elevates authoritarian optics, or distracts domestic media cycles at a Kremlin-critical moment, the result is Moscow gaining time, legitimacy, or breathing space.
Vexler sees Trump as bumbling into China’s advantage. But the correct frame is that China is a secondary beneficiary of a deeper project: ensuring Russian survival against the West and Ukraine. Xi’s gains are real, but they are incidental to the Kremlin’s prime directive.
Trump is not building Chinese hegemony—he is performing the role of Traitor-General in a Kremlin-scripted asymmetric campaign.
The Pillar Three Lens
Pillar One dictates regime security as the autocrat’s prime directive. Pillar Two explains the use of asymmetric tools—narratives, sabotage, manipulation—over conventional warfare. Pillar Three clarifies Trump’s unique role: a captured Western leader functioning inside the Byzantine Generals Problem as the traitor within.
Through this lens, the Trump pattern is no mystery:
When Trump sabotages NATO consensus, Putin gains.
When Trump blames Ukraine or shifts pressure to Europe, Putin gains.
When Trump postures theatrically instead of deterring, Putin gains.
When Trump uses media stunts to derail coverage of Russian setbacks, Putin gains.
The “harm” that Vexler describes is not an unintended consequence of incompetence. It is the intended outcome.
Implication for Analysts (Trump Is a Known Liar)
For Western analysts, the corrective is simple but profound: stop grading Trump by his stated aims, and stop mistaking consistent betrayal for accident. Adopt the Pillar Three prior—treat Trump as a hostile actor whose moves are designed to help Putin unless proven otherwise by outcomes.
For Ukraine and the wider West, this means:
Do not wait for “incompetence” to self-destruct; it is functioning precisely as designed.
Harden NATO and EU decision-making against U.S. sabotage.
Treat every Trump initiative, summit, or threat as a potential asymmetric strike aimed at weakening Western resolve.
For Vexler
Vexler is right to highlight the damage. He is wrong to excuse it as Trump’s ineptitude or to frame it primarily as a boon to China.
The reality is sharper: Trump’s every major action reliably aids Putin, harms Ukraine, and weakens the West.
That is the definition of a Traitor-General. And once seen, it cannot be unseen.
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