Vitamin R: The Epstein Blackmail Equilibrium as Strategy
- john raymond
- Sep 16
- 2 min read
Updated: Sep 16
The Epstein file is not simply a liability for President Trump—it is also his core strategic asset. Its utility is not in release, but in suspension: elites fear disclosure, and fear disciplines them.
That fear will dissolve if the list is ever fully published. Therefore, Trump’s rational play is not resolution but equilibrium maintenance: keep the asset half-hidden, swat down outbreaks that endanger his regime, and ensure the perception of sin remains while avoiding personal accountability for the network’s design.
Why “No Strategy” Is the Strategy
Vlad Vexler is correct that this is not “politics as usual.” But he mistakes daily firefighting for incapacity. In fact, perpetual firefighting is the strategy. Blackmail works only so long as the gun is loaded but unfired. Each flare-up reaffirms the danger to those implicated; each suppression proves Trump’s willingness to defend himself—and the boundary.
What looks like drift is all but certainly equilibrium management: Trump must never squelch the scandal outright, because that means means his regime-protecting leverage will be lost.
Survival as Success
For Trump, victory is not measured in laws passed or coalitions built. It is measured in one more day of survival. If the regime lives, the strategy works. That is why the fly-swatter approach suffices: he need not solve Epstein, only survive it.
The continued backing of elites—illustrated by the UK state visit, conducted amid Epstein noise but still sanctioned by institutions—proves that the equilibrium holds. Because if the elites had abandoned him, he could not stand beside royalty.
The Blackmail Calculus
If list released: Trump’s leverage is gone, elites will be liberated or destroyed, and the regime will be mortally weakened.
If list somehow neutralized: then the scandal dissipates, but so does the elite fear of release—again, the leverage will be gone, and again the regime will be mortally weakened.
If list remains suppressed but feared: elites comply, public rage dissipates in noise, and Trump survives another day.
The third outcome is the equilibrium Trump pursues. He is rationally constrained to this path, because his power source is not democratic legitimacy but coercive control over elites.
My Gentle Rebuke to Vexler
To say Trump “cannot handle the issue” is to miss the point. He is not seeking closure; he is seeking endless stasis. Delay is not incompetence, it is a weapon.
The regime persists because the equilibrium persists. To collapse Trump’s power, analysts and strategists must stop imagining that the goal is resolution and start recognizing the true play: as long as Trump breathes politically, his strategy is working.
Therefore... The Epstein file equilibrium will endure until either (a) external actors force a collapse through authentic disclosure, coordinated defections, or international exposure, or (b) Trump carries the equilibrium to the end of his presidency and beyond.
Remember, the regime’s lifeline is not politics or democracy. It is blackmail. To fight that, we must first see it clearly.
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