Vitamin R: To Those Who Think The Israel-Iran Ceasefire is Durable: It Is Likely Not.
- john raymond
- Jun 25
- 2 min read
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran, while holding for now, is unlikely to prove durable.
The primary reason lies in the instability of the current geopolitical architecture: Putin is still in retreat after Operation Spiderweb, and Trump’s grip on power in the United States is weakening. As the U.S. economy deteriorates, Trump will find it harder to pull the levers that once allowed him to orchestrate symbolic interventions and consolidate narrative control. This creates a dangerous vacuum.
With Trump weakened, Netanyahu is increasingly left to his own devices. For Netanyahu, a rekindled conflict with Iran could serve both domestic and strategic purposes. It provides a distraction from internal political woes and reasserts Israeli strength in a region teetering on chaos. A quiet period may last a month or two, but the fundamental incentives remain for renewed escalation.
Iran has not yet attempted any such retaliatory or preemptive strike, but they must now be seriously considering one. The precedent set by Operation Spiderweb—and the symbolic, limited nature of Trump’s attacks—signals to Iran that escalation can occur without full-scale reprisal. With Netanyahu operating increasingly on his own terms and Trump’s influence waning, Tehran is likely recalculating how to reestablish deterrence and regain regional narrative dominance.
While a prolonged peace is always desirable, the strategic logic driving each actor is misaligned with that outcome. Israel all much assuredly continues preparations for another potential strike.
The tactical silence of the present is best understood as a pause between engagements—not a permanent peace.
In short: unless there is a dramatic reversal of strategic incentives or unexpected diplomatic leverage applied, we are likely to see Israeli-Iranian hostilities flare up again within the year.
As such, the current ceasefire is a moment of calm before a probable storm.
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